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Mitigating uncertainty with scenarios
After reading this article you will..
- Understand the different methods to manage uncertainty
- Learn the definitions of scenario planning
- Know the basics of scenario planning schools and history of future studies
Business and investment planning
- Investment project fundamentals
- Business and investment planning in the forest industry
- Conceptual phase
- Pre-feasibility phase
- Feasibility phase
- Organisational learning in investment projects
Authors & references
Author:
Antti Lindqvist
References:
- Schoemaker, P.J.H. 2002. Profiting from Uncertainty: Strategies for Succeeding No Matter What the Future Brings. New York, The Free Press.
- Coyle, G. 2004. Practical Strategy – Structured Tools and Techniques. Harlow, Pearson Education Limited.
- Bradfield, R., Wright, G., Burt, G., Cairns, G., van der Heijden, K. 2005. The Origins and Evolution of Scenario Techniques in Long Range Business Planning. Futures, vol. 37, pp. 795–812.
- Schoemaker, P.J.H. 1991. When and How to Use Scenario Planning: A Heuristic Approach with Illustration. Journal of Forecasting, vol. 10, no. 6, pp. 549–564.
- Piirainen, K., Tuominen, M., Elfvengren, K., Kortelainen, S., Niemistö, V. 2007. Developing Support for Scenario Process: A Scenario Study on Lappeenranta University of Technology from 2006 to 2016. Research Report, no. 182, Lappeenranta University of Technology, Finland.
- Ralston, B., Wilson, I. 2006. The Scenario-Planning Handbook. Mason, Ohio, Thomson Higher Education
- Piirainen, K., Lindqvist, A. 2009. Enhancing Business and Technology Foresight with Electronically Mediated Scenario Process. Published in the Proceedings of Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology PICMET’09 Conference, Portland, Oregon, USA.
- Piirainen, K., Lindqvist, A. 2010. Enhancing Business and Technology Foresight with Electronically Mediated Scenario Process, Foresight, Vol. 12, No. 2, pp. 16–37.
Videos
Exercises
This page has been updated 15.10.2020